信任视角下的家庭借贷行为研究

基于2015年和2017年中国家庭金融调查数据,本文实证研究发现,信任能够提高家庭正规信贷可得性,降低家庭使用非正规信贷的概率。进一步地,信贷可得性的差异带来家庭负债结构的变化,信任能够提升家庭正规信贷占比,降低非正规信贷占比。信任提升家庭资金借出概率,但这种关系并不是单调递增的,而是存在适度信任现象。异质性分析表明,在户主文化程度低的家庭和农村地区家庭,信任对借出的影响更大。因此,本文的结果表明,信任能够在一定程度上缓解家庭融资的困难。     

失信联合惩戒的正当性及其立法限度

失信联合惩戒基于其强大的威慑力,成为当前社会信用立法中的关键制度设计。目前如火如荼的社会信用立法及实践中失信联合惩戒的范围有不断扩容的趋势。通过探讨失信联合惩戒正当性基础并厘清其所涉及的公权与私权、惩戒与激励、市场与政府三重关系,间接勾勒失信联合惩戒的范围和框架。在此基础上,有必要明确失信联合惩戒在信用立法中的定位,审慎设置联合惩戒措施,触发机制方面亦需进行关联性、确定性、谦抑性的限制,以实现在寻求最大共识基础上的引领性、基础性法律制度构建的目标,逐步推动信用治理法治化,培植整个社会的信用秩序。     

安徽省党建引领信用村建设制度优势与实践思考——以安徽省为例

作为促进现代金融和农村经济耦合发展的重要制度安排,农村信用体系建设是助力乡村振兴战略、金融精准扶贫、普惠金融发展的必要条件。2019年,安徽省委组织部牵头多部门联合出台了《关于选点开展党建引领信用村建设工作方案》,在全省13个地市选择基层党建基础较好、经济发展条件较好、信用体系建设水平较高的26个乡镇开展试点工作。实地调研发现,党建引领信用村建设充分发挥了基层党组织的宣传功能、组织功能、服务功能,促进了党建与业务深度融合。为推动全省农村信用体系高水平建设、高质量发展,应当从思想上强化使命担当,永葆攻坚克难干事创业本色;从行动上坚持以新发展理念为指导,提高统筹贯彻新发展理念的能力和水平。     

信贷政策、银企关联与企业资本结构

本文从供给政策和银企关联两个层面出发,揭示信贷政策、银企关联对资本结构影响的理论机制,并提出3个理论假设,并以2003-2012年间360家上市公司为样本分别进行实证检验。结果表明,信贷供给和银企关联对资本结构具有显著的正向影响效应,并且两者之间存在显著的替代关系。鉴于此,必须加快发展和完善多层次资本市场,拓宽企业融资渠道,降低企业的融资成本;重视银企关联这一非正式制度安排对企业资本结构的作用,预防甚至减少违规现象的出现。     

Optimal mixed taxation,credit constraints,and the timing of income tax reporting

We study optimal income and commodity tax policy with credit‐constrained low‐income households. Workers receive an even flow of income during the tax year, but report their incomes and make tax payments (receive transfers) at the end of the year. They spend their disposable income on multiple commodities over the year. We show that differentiated subsidies on commodities can be optimal even if the Atkinson–Stiglitz Theorem conditions apply. When the optimal policy leaves low‐income households with binding credit constraints, it may be optimal to subsidize differentially the good that they consume in higher proportion. Uniform subsidies would also relax the credit constraint, but would be more costly to the government since they would equally benefit unconstrained households. Numerical examples suggest that commodity tax differentiation increases with basic needs and with the interest rate at which government borrows.     

When Overlapping Organisations Play Two-Level Games: IMF–EU Interaction in Credit Lending to Latvia and Greece

In the literature, the cooperation of the IMF and the EU in credit lending has been discussed either from a state-centric, bureaucratic or institutionalist perspective. In this article, we examine the Troika as a set-up of multiple organisational overlap providing bureaucratic agents with constraints and opportunities for strategic action. Taking Latvia and Greece as cases in point, we analyse who prevails in a situation of conflict and why. How do these international organisations manage to overcome their differences and reach consensus? Drawing on the Two-Level game approach, we argue that negotiators are more likely to prevail over each other when their respective win-set decreases. We find that different strategies to manipulate win-sets are decisive to explain both cooperation and assertiveness. Changing costs of no agreement during a lending programme as well as the institutional procedures for programme ratification facilitate the use of these strategies.     

金融科技与中小微企业信贷获取——基于新三板企业的实证研究

中小微企业融资难、融资贵是世界性难题,银行信贷融资是其外部融资的重要来源,但目前过低的融资规模制约了其缓解融资难的有效发挥,如何提升中小微企业的银行信贷融资成为学术界的研究难点。金融科技的迅猛发展是否对解决该难点有所助益？本文以2011—2020年新三板企业为样本对该问题进行考察,研究发现：(1)金融科技能显著提升中小微企业信贷资源获取,该结论在考虑内生性和稳健性检验后依然成立;(2)机制分析表明,金融科技能够通过降低信息不对称、促进商业信用融资以及加剧银行业竞争等渠道显著促进中小微企业的信贷获取;(3)异质性分析表明,金融科技对信贷获取的促进作用在货币政策紧缩时期、信用环境较差地区、中西部地区、融资约束较高、产权性质为非国有以及抵押能力较弱的企业中表现得更加明显;(4)进一步研究表明,金融科技能够降低借贷成本;相对于短信贷期限结构企业,金融科技对于长信贷期限结构企业的正向影响更为明显。本文的研究结论支持了金融科技的长尾效应和普惠性,也为中小微企业获取更多信贷资源,缓解融资难题提供了有效路径。     

What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?

We study the links between fiscal stimulus packages during times of crisis and households' liabilities. We do so by using household-level data on income and liabilities from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and estimating an empirical model along those in the literature on the consumption effects of these packages. We find that receiving a check from the government tends to translate into a reduction in outstanding liabilities for American households. This effect is robust to controlling for income levels and household size. The effects are driven by households whose income is below the median and by those who remain employed during the crisis.     

“非中介化”、农户货币偏好与农户信用重建研究

本文对农村金融中的常态“非中介化”和农户货币偏好规律进行了探讨,揭示伴随农户借贷行为而产生农户融资渠道的转变和货币偏好,这两种经济现象背后的实质是信用的核心———普适性信任在发生作用,提出通过建立农户贷款担保基金和强化农村合作经济组织建设,以重构农户信用。同时,通过完善农村信用社的经营机制和产权结构,优化对农户信用缺失约束的外部环境,以增强双方的信任度,从而达到消除农村金融中的常态“非中介化”等对农户收入增长的不利因素。     

信用担保合约的定价

随着信用担保行业的不断发展,作为高风险行业,对其担保合约的科学定价以覆盖其担保失败的损失,显得极为重要。利用信用担保合约与信用违约互换的支付函数的同构性,构建适当的信用违约互换合约及模拟信用担保公司的信用担保合约,以信用违约互换的定价方式为信用担保公司的信用担保合同进行定价,更能体现出定价模型对担保合约定价的客观性、科学性和准确性。